Group G

Group G pits a fading power against a side built around one superstar. Belgium (UEFA) start as favourites, but this is the tail end of their golden generation-the group-stage exit of 2022 still lingers, and they look beatable. Egypt (CAF) are their most obvious challenger, and as long as Mohamed Salah is on the pitch they carry a goal threat capable of deciding any match in the group.

Iran (AFC) arrive at a fourth straight World Cup as one of the better-drilled Asian sides, still chasing a first-ever advance past the group stage-and this draw, without a true giant, may be their best chance yet. New Zealand (OFC) are back on the biggest stage after a long absence as Oceania's representative; physical and disciplined, they specialise in frustrating higher-ranked opponents even if they lack the cutting edge to go far.

How to predict it: Belgium and Egypt are the logical pair to advance, but neither is a lock-Iran are well-organised enough to gatecrash the top two if either favourite stumbles. This is a group without an elite team, which cuts both ways for the best-thirds maths: a third-placed side here may finish on fewer points than a third-placed team from a stronger group, so don't over-rate your third-place pick from Group G when filling the eight qualifying slots.

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